Thursday, February 3, 2022

Excel: Forecasting using Exponential Triple Smoothing



The Excel FORECAST.ETS function uses the AAA version of the advanced machine learning Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) algorithm to forecast future values based on historical data.

The FORECAST.ETS function is available in Excel 2016 or later versions. This function can detect a seasonal pattern of data.

1. The function predicts a future value by Exponential Triple Smoothing.

Let us have an example:



Providing the last three arguments is not mandatory. The fourth argument defines the size of the seasonal pattern. A default value of 1 implies that the seasonality is automatically found.


2. Enter 1350 in the cell C. Select the cells A1:C11. Create a scatter plot with straight lines and markers.



3. The function FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY can be used to find the length of the seasonal pattern.










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